... although you wouldn't know it from NCVoices, whose script isn't parsing her blog feed correctly (the post "Resisting the Reign of Death" may have a format error.)
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, September 27, 2012
NaNoWriMo, OctoLearnMo
(revised Oct 6,8)
You may know that November is NaNoWriMo, National Novel Writing Month, for those so inclined; according to this LA Times article, in 2009 it had 167,000 participants, of whom a little more than a fifth did finish their 50,000+ word novel.
I'm christening this October OctoLearnMo, for self study.
You may know that November is NaNoWriMo, National Novel Writing Month, for those so inclined; according to this LA Times article, in 2009 it had 167,000 participants, of whom a little more than a fifth did finish their 50,000+ word novel.
I'm christening this October OctoLearnMo, for self study.
Sunday, September 02, 2012
Excellent NYTimes op-ed on how horse-race journalists are falling short even in horse-race analysis
Why Campaign Reporters Are Behind the Curve
"This is why [even non-science parts of] newspapers are worth reading," - me (*)
"This is why [even non-science parts of] newspapers are worth reading," - me (*)
Worse than models projected: Record low arctic sea ice already, and still another couple weeks to go
Click for the animation:
Uncertainty is not our friend. The risk can be greater than models suggest: for Arctic sea ice, the loss is happening much faster than predicted. So relying on the model projections to inform your decisionmaking may not be enough;
Water planners, there may be a lesson here.
Uncertainty is not our friend. The risk can be greater than models suggest: for Arctic sea ice, the loss is happening much faster than predicted. So relying on the model projections to inform your decisionmaking may not be enough;
Water planners, there may be a lesson here.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Lessons learned (or at least taught), #234567 and #234568
Lesson #234567:
When you submit a letter to the editor, suggest a title for it.
When you submit a letter to the editor, suggest a title for it.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Solutions journalism sketch: Hirshman's Pond trail issues
I'm one person and there's too #$%^& much to do, most of it far more important than this, but I think it's worth at least laying out what "solutions journalism" coverage of the recent Hirshman's Pond trail issues might look like.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
EXCELLENT "climate weirdness" NPR Fresh Air interview with Climate Central's Lemonick this a.m.
This is why NPR deserves our support - in an hour or so, asking good, open-ended Qs and then letting his guest talk, Fresh Air host David Davies let Michael Lemonick (with a new book) give the straight scoop on climate change.
There'll be a recording up later today; download it, since this is one to listen to with friends, family, neighbors...
(The only add'l thing I would have liked to hear would have been pointers at the end, on where to go for various info, eg. to SkepticalScience.)
... "We've had time to act — and essentially we haven't acted," says science journalist Michael Lemonick....
There'll be a recording up later today; download it, since this is one to listen to with friends, family, neighbors...
(The only add'l thing I would have liked to hear would have been pointers at the end, on where to go for various info, eg. to SkepticalScience.)
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Marooned in meatspace, more or less (PITA computers...)
Apologies for any failures to attend or respond... connections are spotty, so please be patient.
Sunday, August 05, 2012
Nevada County environmental activists, it's past time for vision. Why so quiet?
What does the future hold for our rivers? Are our river protectors aware?
From the [U.K.] Independent, Heatwave turns America's waterways into rivers of death.
"Significant tolls of fresh-water species, from pike to trout, have been reported, most frequently in the Midwest..."
Climate change is here — and worse than we thought, says James Hansen, the climate scientist who's got perhaps the best track record on climate change. His Aug 3 Washington Post op-ed goes on to say,
Hansen concludes,
What do you need, in order to speak up?
I don't want to be an activist - I'm not suited for it, I'm not good at it. The people who are, really need to step up to the plate.
From the [U.K.] Independent, Heatwave turns America's waterways into rivers of death.
"Significant tolls of fresh-water species, from pike to trout, have been reported, most frequently in the Midwest..."
Climate change is here — and worse than we thought, says James Hansen, the climate scientist who's got perhaps the best track record on climate change. His Aug 3 Washington Post op-ed goes on to say,
"...the past six decades of global temperatures...[show] a stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for our present.I think we can all see the likely fate of Sierra rivers and their fish, if we continue to act like ostriches and let climate change have its way with us.
This is not a climate model or a prediction but actual observations of weather events and temperatures that have happened."
Hansen concludes,
"We can solve the challenge of climate change with a gradually rising fee on carbon collected from fossil-fuel companies, with 100 percent of the money rebated to all legal residents on a per capita basis. This would stimulate innovations and create a robust clean-energy economy with millions of new jobs. It is a simple, honest and effective solution."Where are Nevada County's activists on this issue? There's a bizarre "dog that didn't bark" aspect to the local selective blindness. Folks, this issue will doom your mission if we don't address it; surely you do realize this?
What do you need, in order to speak up?
I don't want to be an activist - I'm not suited for it, I'm not good at it. The people who are, really need to step up to the plate.
Friday, July 27, 2012
A world without coral reefs
"we hear...an airbrushed view of the crisis... Coral reefs, like rain forests, are a symbol of biodiversity. And, like rain forests, they are portrayed as existentially threatened — but salvageable. The message is: “There is yet hope.”
Bradbury says no, there isn't.
"...these forces are unstoppable and irreversible. And it is these two features — acceleration and inertia — that have blindsided us."Time to wake up.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Bill McKibben on climate threat to localism; "we've got to work globally."
Should local-first advocates also help tackle global climate change? On Sunday night in a taped discussion, Bill McKibben told us yes -- "The only thing that can derail this [localism] revolution is how we're degrading the planet."
He pointed out that the extreme weather which hit Vermont (in 2010(?)) "washed away the local farms" that had taken 20 years or more to build up. "So we've got to work globally, which is what 350.org is for."
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Nevada City hot summer nights, and the crush of humanity
The question we came up with in town tonight is, by what alchemy could you take our streets seething with human ferment and produce some kind of civic output?
("everybody out having a good time" is one civic output, but what others might be possible?)
("everybody out having a good time" is one civic output, but what others might be possible?)
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Explainer: "Obamacare" synopsis, presented neutrally
It's here on Reddit.
In about 3 pages, Obamacare "explained like you're a five year-old... without too much oversimplification, and (hopefully) without sounding too biased. ... What does it do? Well, here is everything, in the order of when it goes into effect (because some of it happens later than other parts of it):"
It's a quicker read than the original. (pdf, huge)
In about 3 pages, Obamacare "explained like you're a five year-old... without too much oversimplification, and (hopefully) without sounding too biased. ... What does it do? Well, here is everything, in the order of when it goes into effect (because some of it happens later than other parts of it):"
It's a quicker read than the original. (pdf, huge)
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
A precedent for the failure of a scientific consensus
The climate science consensus today, covering a range of views, says our policies are very much on the wrong track.
Today,
It concludes,
"... the [climate science] field, as represented by IPCC, rightly or wrongly is solidly behind a range of opinion [i.e., "enormously disruptive changes in the world’s climate in the lifetimes of people now living"] that, if correct, makes current policy toward carbon emissions flatly insane."That's excerpted from a fine post by Michael Tobis at Planet3.0, looking at what lessons the late 19th-century extreme underestimates of Earth's age hold for scientists and other citizens today.
Today,
"People don’t believe us [on climate science projections] because 1) our competencies are not especially visible to them 2) our message seems improbable and 3) what we say reminds them of superstitious, excessive, innumerate apocalyptic green radicalism (and is embraced by green radicals) and 4) what we recommend is spending on specific expensive projects that would be otherwise unnecessary or premature. ...Go read the post for the answers.
... one might want to look through the history of science for cases where a crucial quantity [analogous to climate sensitivity] had an accepted range [and yet]... turned out to be badly wrong. I’ve recently come across one, and the story is instructive.
...
How could such a crucial number [as the age of the earth] be so widely held for so long at a value that was so badly wrong?"
It concludes,
"... Just as uncertainty is not our friend, the herd mentality is not our friend either. The herd will always split the difference between the evidence and what they want to believe. Consequently, we may be worse off than we think."
Monday, July 09, 2012
Thoughts of 4th of July parade spectators on global warming and solutions.
A little after noon, before Nevada City's (2pm) 4th of July parade, I started up Broad Street with voice recorder in hand, asking the earlybird spectators what came to mind when they heard the term "global warming", and then if they indicated it was a problem, what came to mind for solutions.
Friday, July 06, 2012
How to report city and county issues that need fixing
This month's Nevada City Advocate (story not online AFAIK) reports that Nevada County has an online and mobile "citizen service request" app for reporting potholes, environmental hazards etc, that went live several months ago (link). (Update: The City of Grass Valley has one too)
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Jeff Masters: next week may be our turn
"Around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states. "- from Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters, in his post The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history. He continues,
"The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest."
See also Sierra Voices: this is what global warming looks like.
Kevin Trenberth: We're looking at the future (of global warming)
Trenberth on PBS, talking about the wild weather & record heat as a taste of the future under global warming.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Stock responses to "inaction" talking points on climate change
Why engage? “The thing humans fear more than anything else is the inability to care for our children," says Auden Schendler (*). Caring would seem to include protecting their home and life support system.
After the primary - which of our U.S. congressional candidates&officeholders support ending the $12b/yr taxpayer subsidies to fossil fuel industry?
Spoiler: Only Reed and a McClintock aide have responded.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Future sea level rise under inaction today - the big picture looks ugly
David Roberts has a "big picture" post today, Rising sea levels: It’s worse than you think.
What to bequeath those who follow us?
Here (Source: flood.firetree.net) is what the Sacramento valley would look like under a 5 meter sea level rise. Who will be cleaning up the toxic stuff in garages and industrial parks, before they get flooded? - since the bulk of the damage will come from extreme weather events amplified by the sea level rise.
Mitigation is preventing the problem, like keeping kids from smoking (video). Adaptation means trying to adjust to living with the problem, like giving smokers an oxygen tank when they develop emphysema. Or like mandating wider roads, to help drivers escape forest fires.
Failing to decide to act is itself a decision, whose effects fall on the kids, and on their descendants. They would tell you "it's not fair" - what would you tell them?
What to bequeath those who follow us?
So, if we f*ck around and allow temperature to rise 4.5 degrees C, by 2300 sea levels could be up to 5 meters (16.4 feet) higher and rising at around 13 mm a year. That will be tons of fun to adapt to for all Earth’s creatures, I’m sure.
Here (Source: flood.firetree.net) is what the Sacramento valley would look like under a 5 meter sea level rise. Who will be cleaning up the toxic stuff in garages and industrial parks, before they get flooded? - since the bulk of the damage will come from extreme weather events amplified by the sea level rise.
Mitigation is preventing the problem, like keeping kids from smoking (video). Adaptation means trying to adjust to living with the problem, like giving smokers an oxygen tank when they develop emphysema. Or like mandating wider roads, to help drivers escape forest fires.
Failing to decide to act is itself a decision, whose effects fall on the kids, and on their descendants. They would tell you "it's not fair" - what would you tell them?
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
David Roberts, "Climate change is simple.."
David Roberts of Grist is the among the top online communicators about climate change - which is why I've added his feed to Nevada County Voices. Here's his 17-minute TEDx presentation (video, and notes) "Climate change is simple: We do something or we’re screwed."
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Soapbox derby crew accident - life flight helicopter (edited)
The Union's story (Update: it's moved here) has now appeared & has info, including identities.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Record hot spring in contiguous U.S. - crushing old record for "most extreme season".
From Jeff Masters' Wunderblog, here:
Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .... The March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.Meanwhile, a local paper runs an op-ed from a woman indicating concerns about climate are groundless, only a ruse. But placing political ideology before climate science makes for poor long-run prioritizing, as another op-ed points out.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Nevada County alternative transportation options?
What alternative vehicles (or rideshare apps, or ?) have we got, here in western Nevada County?
Memorial Day writing
Read Don Pelton's In Praise of Warriors, Not War.
Every citizen who understands that some wars are unavoidable and necessary owes this same effort – to understand what combat really is – to those whom he may ask to risk their lives. ...And Charles Pierce's Loving the Warrior, Hating the Wars: Our Memorial Daze.
Our methods of repayment [to veterans and activs service members] ... are curious, to say the least. We let them get on planes ahead of us, with the elderly and the infirm and the toddlers, but we underfund hospital care... We pay tribute to them at ballgames, but send them into battle ill-prepared, and bring them home to decrepit facilities and heedless bureaucracies. We give them parades, but had to be blackjacked into giving them a "new G.I. Bill" that is but a pale shadow of the original one, which did no less than create the modern American middle class. ...
Friday, May 25, 2012
An action that can make a difference
Having a thriving sustainability movement and a culture that encourages personal "carbon footprint" action is great, but what's needed is policy action, and there's the danger that focusing on personal "footprint" efforts can distract from solving the problem.
But here's a personal action that does make a difference:
(Note: but it might need some tweaking, before it's worth spending time on)
But here's a personal action that does make a difference:
(Note: but it might need some tweaking, before it's worth spending time on)
Public transportation report: to Palo Alto and back
(I'm way behind on trip & talk reports. Here's a simple one.)
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Thoughts on politics, factions, alliances, effectiveness, cooperation, ...,
This is train-of-thought stuff; apologies in advance for its lack of polish.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Talks Thurs and Fri eve - Steingraber on "Living Downstream" , Mach on climate & Calif's vulnerability
We've got two upcoming talks this Thurs and Fri eve - Sandra Steingraber ("Living Downstream") on Thurs, then Katharine Mach on the IPCC, climate change & California's vulnerability (snowpack, water...) on Friday.
Steingraber had this piece in Orion last fall.
Steingraber had this piece in Orion last fall.
Which U.S. congressional candidates support ending the $12b/yr taxpayer subsidies to fossil fuel industry?
Contact info for Aanestad, Arrowsmith or Dacquisto?
Update: Never mind, this post is moot. (Three cheers for the League of Women Voters, for their smartvoter.org website.)
I've emailed or otherwise contacted all the other U.S. congressional candidates on our Nevada County ballots, asking whether they'd support the Sanders/Ellison "End Polluter Welfare Act" bill to stop the roughly $12 billion/year in taxpayer-funded subsidies to fossil fuel companies.
But I am not finding the email or other contact info for Aanestad, Arrowsmith and Dacquisto.
I've emailed or otherwise contacted all the other U.S. congressional candidates on our Nevada County ballots, asking whether they'd support the Sanders/Ellison "End Polluter Welfare Act" bill to stop the roughly $12 billion/year in taxpayer-funded subsidies to fossil fuel companies.
But I am not finding the email or other contact info for Aanestad, Arrowsmith and Dacquisto.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Great voter guide in yesterday's Sac Bee
For the June 5 elections, California has implemented redistricting and a top-two primary, where - except for presidential candidates - you can vote for anyone who's running, regardless of party, and the two candidates with the most votes, also regardless of party, advance to the general election. There's a great article by Torey Van Oot in the dead-tree Bee explaining all this, but it doesn't appear to be online among the race and candidate profiles - and what is there is said to be optimized for mobile, i.e. not for readers who want to see the whole thing at a glance.
I wonder if you can pick up a used Sunday Bee for a reasonable price on EBay; this one would be worth it.
(h/t Steve Baker and/or Shawn Garvey)
I wonder if you can pick up a used Sunday Bee for a reasonable price on EBay; this one would be worth it.
(h/t Steve Baker and/or Shawn Garvey)
Friday, May 11, 2012
"If this sounds apocalyptic, it is." - problem and solutions from James Hansen in NY Times, and solution from senators
Yesterday's New York Times has an op-ed from climatologist James Hansen on the problem and solutions, Game Over for the Climate; and Senators Bernie Sanders and Keith Ellison have introduced a bill, the End Polluter Welfare Act, that's part of the solution.
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Connecting the dots, tending your acre, and revisiting the proposed "fee and dividend" carbon policy.
It was a good rally we had here on Saturday; and it was great to see that others in our community thought protecting a livable climate was worth turning out for.
I need to get better at stressing that this is about saving the humans, since that doesn't seem to be the general perception. Folks, you've got about an acre, which must sustain you and your descendants forever. Good stewardship is a must.
One correction to something I said on Saturday: while it's true that acting to effectively cut greenhouse gas emissions will cost only about 10 cents per gallon of gas, that's the initial cost, which will ramp up over time - though it's moot since it's revenue-neutral (so the money collected gets returned to us anyway), plus the increase over time will be countered by cost savings, as people switch to lower-carbon or more efficient energy usage.
(updated 3pm, since the reference provided didn't back up the original example) A hypothetical example of this "switch effect" would be state revenue from tobacco taxes declining, as people respond to the price signal and cut back on smoking.
So your "$1500" could turn out to be less (edited). "Ask me how to make $1500 and get clean air."
I need to get better at stressing that this is about saving the humans, since that doesn't seem to be the general perception. Folks, you've got about an acre, which must sustain you and your descendants forever. Good stewardship is a must.
One correction to something I said on Saturday: while it's true that acting to effectively cut greenhouse gas emissions will cost only about 10 cents per gallon of gas, that's the initial cost, which will ramp up over time - though it's moot since it's revenue-neutral (so the money collected gets returned to us anyway), plus the increase over time will be countered by cost savings, as people switch to lower-carbon or more efficient energy usage.
(updated 3pm, since the reference provided didn't back up the original example) A hypothetical example of this "switch effect" would be state revenue from tobacco taxes declining, as people respond to the price signal and cut back on smoking.
So your "$1500" could turn out to be less (edited). "Ask me how to make $1500 and get clean air."
Friday, May 04, 2012
Two upcoming climate events, and Reclaiming The SIerra conference with visionary keynote speech and Saturday workshops
Sat May 5's Connect the Dots, Fri May 18's climate talk, Reclaiming the Sierra conference.
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
From Howard Zinn
“TO BE HOPEFUL in bad times is not just foolishly romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is a history not only of cruelty, but also of compassion, sacrifice, courage, kindness. What we choose to emphasize in this complex history will determine our lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity to do something. If we remember those times and places—and there are so many—where people have behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act, and at least the possibility of sending this spinning top of a world in a different direction. And if we do act, in however small a way, we don’t have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory.”
(link)
Sunday, April 29, 2012
How grassroots and personal-carbon-footprint sustainability efforts do move us forward
I'm sure this subject has been addressed before; if you've seen a particularly good post about it, please speak up.
Earlier today I'd argued that a focus on local and personal-sized sustainability actions was something to be careful of, since it could lead people to think they had done enough, whereas policy action is the most important part of the solution. But upon rumination, I'd like to backtrack, partly. These local-and-personal actions do move us forward in a number of ways, IF they're consistently, repeatedly paired with communication to drum in the point that policy action is the most essential part of the solution; i.e., "just don't make the mistake of only working on these local-greening things."
Earlier today I'd argued that a focus on local and personal-sized sustainability actions was something to be careful of, since it could lead people to think they had done enough, whereas policy action is the most important part of the solution. But upon rumination, I'd like to backtrack, partly. These local-and-personal actions do move us forward in a number of ways, IF they're consistently, repeatedly paired with communication to drum in the point that policy action is the most essential part of the solution; i.e., "just don't make the mistake of only working on these local-greening things."
Coming soon on NCTV: an episode on upcoming Connect The Dots event and its climate context
Lew, Richard and I were guests for an Occupy Nevada County TV episode publicizing our upcoming local 350.org-coordinated Connect the Dots May 5 event and climate change; we filmed it this morning.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
This a.m, planning for May 5 Climate Impacts Day, on climate change & extreme weather - connect the dots
We were hugely fortunate to have Bill McKibben come here last week (Tue 17th) and speak to a packed house about global warming, and about the "global weirding" of weather that we've seen over the last several years.
(If you haven't seen the talk, an edited-down version will air on NCTV, on the Occupy Nevada County program.)
His most trenchant statement was essentially this:
The climate group that McKibben and seven Middlebury College students started, 350.org, is holding a worldwide action May 5 to stand in solidarity with communities and workers (including Vermont small farmers) impacted by this wild weather - and we in Nevada County will participate. Our planning meeting is at 8:30 a.m. this (Sat.) morning at Sierra Mountain Coffee Roasters; and the event itself will be next Saturday afternoon, 3pm. Stay tuned...
Working to green your local community is important; just don't make the mistake of ONLY working on those things - because this won't be nearly enough to tackle the scale of the problem.He also spoke a lot about "global weirding", the spate of wild weather that's hit our world over the last few years - record U.S. heat in March, "the French heat wave, the Chicago heat wave, the Australia heat wave, the Russian heat wave, the Texas drought"; the Pakistan and Phillipine floods...
A quick summary of 2011 [New England] weather highlights would read approximately like this: Devastating snowstorm, devastating snowstorm, blizzard, heat wave, heat wave, torrential rains, hurricane (more torrential rains), floods, hurricane remnants (even more torrential rains), worse floods, even more devastating snowstorm—and that only takes you through October. (link)
The climate group that McKibben and seven Middlebury College students started, 350.org, is holding a worldwide action May 5 to stand in solidarity with communities and workers (including Vermont small farmers) impacted by this wild weather - and we in Nevada County will participate. Our planning meeting is at 8:30 a.m. this (Sat.) morning at Sierra Mountain Coffee Roasters; and the event itself will be next Saturday afternoon, 3pm. Stay tuned...
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Why it matters
We can tangle on details of the science, but it's more important to step back and consider the risks.
See this excerpt from Elisabeth Kolbert's interview with Bill McKibben. Is it worth an extra 2 or 3% of income, to make a high-risk gamble with the only home we've got, when it's irreplaceable?
Keep in mind that uncertainty actually makes the risk picture worse.
McKibben will speak here in Nevada City next Tuesday eve (tickets at Briarpatch), and a climate speaker from the Carnegie Institution at Stanford will speak at the May 18 Sierra Club meeting.
p.s. for newbies: SkepticalScience.com is the best resource I know of for checking out the science bearing on contrarian climate claims.
See this excerpt from Elisabeth Kolbert's interview with Bill McKibben. Is it worth an extra 2 or 3% of income, to make a high-risk gamble with the only home we've got, when it's irreplaceable?
Keep in mind that uncertainty actually makes the risk picture worse.
McKibben will speak here in Nevada City next Tuesday eve (tickets at Briarpatch), and a climate speaker from the Carnegie Institution at Stanford will speak at the May 18 Sierra Club meeting.
p.s. for newbies: SkepticalScience.com is the best resource I know of for checking out the science bearing on contrarian climate claims.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Hottest March, hottest 12 months on record for contiguous U.S.; with inaction, expect much more.
March temperatures were "as much as 15 degrees F hotter than average" (link); 35 times more heat records were set than cold records. For the contiguous U.S., aka the "lower 48", this was the warmest March and the hottest January-March on record, according to the NOAA's National Climate Data Center State of the Climate Report; and the hottest 12 months on record, according to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters. (link)
"This is weird. This is not good." (link)
And it's with just 1.5 degrees F average warming over the past century; this century, if we don't change course, we expect five times more. (link)
(But this doesn't give us license to throw up our hands and walk away; "Pick any guideline you want, from 1C to 2C to who knows what, and in whatever “important” time frame you prefer, but the inescapable bottom line is that there is always a very high human cost to doing too little. And the further we are from doing enough, ... we’re undeniably making the situation, and thereby the price humanity will pay, much worse by our inaction..." (link) )
"This is weird. This is not good." (link)
And it's with just 1.5 degrees F average warming over the past century; this century, if we don't change course, we expect five times more. (link)
(But this doesn't give us license to throw up our hands and walk away; "Pick any guideline you want, from 1C to 2C to who knows what, and in whatever “important” time frame you prefer, but the inescapable bottom line is that there is always a very high human cost to doing too little. And the further we are from doing enough, ... we’re undeniably making the situation, and thereby the price humanity will pay, much worse by our inaction..." (link) )
Sunday, April 01, 2012
Uncertainty; (4/1) Climate science fixed, "wrong sign paradox" finally resolved. And other news.
RealClimate has the good news; though you might want to check the publication date. (Also, is April Fools Day a worldwide observance, or is it just for Euro&North American culture?)
Also, from the NY Times on March 28, see Justin Gillis's Weather Runs Hot and Cold, So Scientists Look to the Ice - meaning the decline of Arctic sea ice, a disruption that'll likely disrupt weather patterns.
Climate models, which didn't predict this much weather weirdness, "have always had a kind of stodginess to them" (link); so when someone says that "climate models are uncertain," remember (since they typically don't mention this fact) that uncertainty cuts both ways, and increases the threat considerably:
Also, from the NY Times on March 28, see Justin Gillis's Weather Runs Hot and Cold, So Scientists Look to the Ice - meaning the decline of Arctic sea ice, a disruption that'll likely disrupt weather patterns.
Climate models, which didn't predict this much weather weirdness, "have always had a kind of stodginess to them" (link); so when someone says that "climate models are uncertain," remember (since they typically don't mention this fact) that uncertainty cuts both ways, and increases the threat considerably:
"As uncertainty increases, the probability of a truly catastrophic outcome [goes up disproportionately: an increase in]...the standard deviation of our distribution...from .5 to 2.5 increases the likelihood of catastrophe by a factor of 200."Edited (wording, add link) 2012-04-10,11.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
College alumni associations could act as alma mater megaphones
Houston, we have a problem, in citizens' regard for science; but your local alumni association may have the power to solve it. (Edited 03-30)
Monday, March 26, 2012
Seeking local classmate(s) -- "Open Climate 101" course from U. of Chicago for nonmajors, online
Folks, I'm still looking for someone to take this climate course with me - it's online, it's free, it has lectures and labs and quizzes, we can work at our own pace, and we get a certificate of completion when we finish.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Local biochar, biofuel, etc.?
Reinette's got a group and a plan; see this appeal on Yubanet for more.
Information resources still needed in this community:
Information resources still needed in this community:
- An RSS feed for an events calendar that's not full of exercise classes and other "for the next N weeks" events; essentially, KVMR's Community Calendar, online.
- A compilation of local projects seeking funding or other support.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Citizens Climate Lobby
This group looks good: Citizens Climate Lobby, "Political will for a livable world." And I do like their "Ask Me How to Make $1,500 and Get Clean Air" tagline, which needs to be a bumper sticker.
"The fundamental problem of climate policy is on the political leadership and corporate power side", Rick Piltz of Climate Science Watch points out; so it's more effective to focus energy there, both on the "political will for climate action" part, and on the "reform politics to make it work better" part.
(Or at least that's my perspective du jour; stay tuned.)
(The other consideration is, what if you speak like Paul Graham but don't write like Paul Graham? How do you weigh your strengths and preferences against the biggest needs in the "move America forward" ecosystem?)
"The fundamental problem of climate policy is on the political leadership and corporate power side", Rick Piltz of Climate Science Watch points out; so it's more effective to focus energy there, both on the "political will for climate action" part, and on the "reform politics to make it work better" part.
(Or at least that's my perspective du jour; stay tuned.)
(The other consideration is, what if you speak like Paul Graham but don't write like Paul Graham? How do you weigh your strengths and preferences against the biggest needs in the "move America forward" ecosystem?)
Surveying the citizenry on climate change; or, Sierra Club members are the finest people
(Note to the literal: the title of this post is hyperbole, stemming from my astonished appreciation of the group's level of cooperation; to make it literal, it needs the word "among". Edits to intro and end, 3/21, and to this note, 3/22.)
On Friday night our community Sierra Club group met at Seaman's Lodge in Nevada City. Many thanks to the speaker for an interesting and well attended presentation, and many thanks to the attendees for being astoundingly patient and cooperative when I burdened them with an inadequately tested two-page homegrown climate survey, aka climate literacy quiz.
On Friday night our community Sierra Club group met at Seaman's Lodge in Nevada City. Many thanks to the speaker for an interesting and well attended presentation, and many thanks to the attendees for being astoundingly patient and cooperative when I burdened them with an inadequately tested two-page homegrown climate survey, aka climate literacy quiz.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Biofuel from wood chips gets closer
The "biofuel from wood chips" process gets a backer: last September I had posted (h/t NYTimes) about a Pennsylvania-based company with a new process involving using supercritical water to turn cellulose into biofuel. A commenter was dubious, but it turns out that "the largest diversified chemical company in the world" (link) is not: back in January, BASF announced it was investing $30 million into the company, Renmatix. (Added 3/18: Cheap sugars are the new oil, says the CEO of a competitor. (link))
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Cartoon and heartbeat
Working with Photoshop. (Blogpost edited Thurs eve: added RealClimate commentary on consequences.)
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Some very short climate-related animations
Here's a compilation of short animations on climate science and climate change:
- Richard Alley's Milankovich dance, explaining the ice ages, CO2 and global warming (5 min.)
- 130 years of historical global temperature change (1880-2011, NASA); 26 seconds
- Arctic sea ice retreat, 1980-2007, about 30 seconds
- “Time history of atmospheric CO2?; shows the earth “breathing” over 800 thousand years; about 3 minutes
- Trend and Variation; “Human walking an active dog on leash” metaphor for signal vs. noise in climate change (“We’re looking at the dog, but we should be concentrating on the owner…”); about 1 minute
- It’s All About Carbon; a series of roughly 3-minute cartoon shorts from PBS, explaining greenhouse gas science. (But as I recall, the "personal action" ending could have used refurbishing: it needs the POW pledge.)
In Joe Romm's footsteps, my biggest mistake
Edited 2012-03-09,14.
A week ago Joe Romm of ClimateProgress ran a blogpost titled Leap Day Special: My Biggest [blogging] Mistakes. Reassessments like this are good policy, so here's mine,singularplural.
A week ago Joe Romm of ClimateProgress ran a blogpost titled Leap Day Special: My Biggest [blogging] Mistakes. Reassessments like this are good policy, so here's mine,
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Upcoming events list; tickets at BriarPatch
We still don't have a good user-friendly events calendar for western Nevada County, do we?
Meanwhile, the whiteboard at the BriarPatch customer service counter offers a handy summary of upcoming events, ones they're selling tickets for.
Meanwhile, the whiteboard at the BriarPatch customer service counter offers a handy summary of upcoming events, ones they're selling tickets for.
Observances on or around Earth Day, in or around Nevada County
Updated March 27; added events., fixed Rocklin E.D. days.
- Friday eve April 13, Sierra College, Truckee-Tahoe campus, lecture: Sustainability, Change and the Great Reset
- Tuesday eve April 17, Bill McKibben is speaking at the Miner's Foundry, Nevada City.
- Wednesday April 18, Sierra College, Nevada County campus, Earth Day
- Wednesday-Friday April 18-20, Sierra College, Rocklin campus has Earth Week
- Thursday eve April 20, Sierra College, Rocklin campus, The Tramp and the Roughrider - reenactment of President Theodore Roosevelt meeting/camping with John Muir.
- Saturday April 21, Tahoe-Truckee Earth Day
- Sunday April 22, BriarPatch festival.
- Tuesday eve April 24, Film at Sierra College in GV, "Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream.”
The Sierra College Events page is a good resource.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Report on Friday eve Nov 10 YWI talk: Managing Sierra Forests for Resilience (and chocolate)
------
It's getting harder to pick events to attend, around town - among the (non-concert - for concerts, see Festival John's site) options last Friday evening were a Beatles "deconstruction" at the Foundry, a showing* of the Dark Side of Chocolate documentary at BriarPatch, and a Yuba Watershed Institute meeting featuring a talk titled Beyond Multiple Use - Managing Sierra Forests for Resilience, in the community room at the Nevada County library.
If you missed the "chocolate" film, you can watch it online (45 min) - and yes, it likely will put you off non-fair-trade chocolate. (While the documentary was anecdotal, apparently a recent CNN documentary had similar findings, that child slavery continues.) Solutions?
------
Having learned my "don't try to make two events in one evening" lesson a week or two back, I went to just one - the Yuba Watershed Institute talk.
It's getting harder to pick events to attend, around town - among the (non-concert - for concerts, see Festival John's site) options last Friday evening were a Beatles "deconstruction" at the Foundry, a showing* of the Dark Side of Chocolate documentary at BriarPatch, and a Yuba Watershed Institute meeting featuring a talk titled Beyond Multiple Use - Managing Sierra Forests for Resilience, in the community room at the Nevada County library.
If you missed the "chocolate" film, you can watch it online (45 min) - and yes, it likely will put you off non-fair-trade chocolate. (While the documentary was anecdotal, apparently a recent CNN documentary had similar findings, that child slavery continues.) Solutions?
------
Having learned my "don't try to make two events in one evening" lesson a week or two back, I went to just one - the Yuba Watershed Institute talk.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
About the Heartland climate denial documents leak
2012-02-22 update: Ouch.
Documents from the Heartland Institute regarding their climate confusion efforts have been leaked to climate bloggers (blogs like DeSmogBlog and Deep Climate have been on the case ), coinciding with the release of John Mashey's50200+pp report Fake science, fakexperts, funny finances, free of tax, which makes the case that these "501(c)(3) nonprofits" sure look a lot like lobbying outfits.
Documents from the Heartland Institute regarding their climate confusion efforts have been leaked to climate bloggers (blogs like DeSmogBlog and Deep Climate have been on the case ), coinciding with the release of John Mashey's
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Jonah Lehrer: for the best plans & ideas, encourage criticism
Edited.
There's some good advice from author/journalist Jonah Lehrer, in an article titled Groupthink dated Jan. 30 in the New Yorker.
There's some good advice from author/journalist Jonah Lehrer, in an article titled Groupthink dated Jan. 30 in the New Yorker.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Report on David Cobb's Move to Amend talk in Nevada City Saturday night
Seaman's Lodge held a hefty audience for an impassioned talk by attorney & former Green Party presidential candidate David Cobb Sat. night, after a half hour Saul Rayo
performance which included an appearance by Elena Powell.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Climate activist Bill McKibben to speak in Nevada City, mid-April
Climate action heavyweight Bill McKibben of 350.org will be speaking here in Nevada County - venue and date being Miner's Foundry and April 17, I'm pretty sure.
Kudos to those who had the vision to invite him.
Also - if you haven't already watched this - here's a ~30 second NASA animation of earth's recorded temperatures from 1884-2011 (human actions are driving it, not the sun) ...
Also, projected future increases (at link, scroll down; note & consider the divergent red & blue paths) show the need for meaningful action ASAP.
(edited (wording) 2012-02-13)
Kudos to those who had the vision to invite him.
Also - if you haven't already watched this - here's a ~30 second NASA animation of earth's recorded temperatures from 1884-2011 (human actions are driving it, not the sun) ...
Also, projected future increases (at link, scroll down; note & consider the divergent red & blue paths) show the need for meaningful action ASAP.
(edited (wording) 2012-02-13)
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Trails fair today, 4-7pm, Seaman's Lodge in Nevada City
See the Forest Trails Alliance announcement for more information.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
The Parable of the River
The Parable of the River is that
And how can you tell if it's real productivity - would the upstream creatures quit pitching them in, if rescuers left the riverside?
(And are any drones available, for checking upstream?)
"It's not enough to pull drowning victims out of the river; we need to walk back upstream and find out who's throwing them in."But how snake-infested and pitfall-ridden does the path upstream need to be, to make it more productive to just stay downstream and keep on pulling the drowning people out?
And how can you tell if it's real productivity - would the upstream creatures quit pitching them in, if rescuers left the riverside?
(And are any drones available, for checking upstream?)
Friday, January 20, 2012
Wild & Scenic Film Fest report – Death of a Forest
For wreaking death & devastation on North America's high-elevation forests, climate change has been wielding a handy tool - the inconspicuous bark beetle.
Friday, January 13, 2012
The climate change impact of methane from permafrost etc
So, a friend reports hearing news that Arctic methane releases are way worse than CO2. How do you respond, or check out this claim?
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Walking the dog, illuminating climate change
This video shows a great metaphor for separating short-term variation from long-term trend:
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