Thursday, March 15, 2012

Cartoon and heartbeat

Working with Photoshop.  (Blogpost edited Thurs eve: added RealClimate commentary on consequences.)

I'm self-taught, and not the most apt pupil or teacher, so if anyone wants to take either of these concepts and run with it, please do.

The cartoon is adapted from Chris Riddell's original, which asks Grandpa; but Grandma needed one too.

Is it strident?  Decide for yourself:
"We feel compelled to note that even a “moderate” warming of 2°C stands a strong chance of provoking drought and storm responses that could challenge civilized society, leading potentially to the conflict and suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. Global warming of 2°C would leave the Earth warmer than it has been in millions of years, a disruption of climate conditions that have been stable for longer than the history of human agriculture. Given the drought that already afflicts Australia, the crumbling of the sea ice in the Arctic, and the increasing storm damage after only 0.8°C of warming so far, calling 2°C a danger limit seems to us pretty cavalier." 
(That's from the experts - the climate scientists at Real  Climate.)

How likely is this "moderate", very risky warming?

It's the dotted line on the Meinshausen graph  (at right; the graph is from 2009, but I asked today and the outlook hasn't changed*), which shows the projected temperature consequences of our emissions choices; the red range indicates the path of continued delay.

To the graph I added a child of the present, to mark the present, and gave the image a "heartbeat," as an animated .gif.
(To notice the heartbeat you'll need to click here for an enlarged image, then likely click on it again.  Clicking directly on the image to your right ought to work but doesn't seem to.)

"We will be judged by those who come after us, both by what we did do and what we didn't do, in the time given to us."

“What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?” - Sherry Rowland

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