Amy Goodman in Java Johns this morning; am still kicking myself

So Reinette Senum and I were both in Java John's getting our respective caffeine fixes an hour or so ago, and Reinette says "there's Amy Goodman" - and lo, there's Amy Goodman, who spoke in Grass Valley last night. And who comes in, and who Reinette approaches, telling her "You've been an inspiration to me... I'm now running for City Council."

And your silver tongued correspondent chimes in with the oh so informative "yeah, she's going to win"; but do I think to mention, say, Reinette's having put on the community Peak Oil forum? the community Climate Change forum? her role in Step It Up 2007, or in last year's Climate Cafes? her & Kelly's column in The Union? The upcoming weekly Nevada City Saturday morning farmers' market? PowerUp-NC? last December's lightbulb exchange?

and that's probably just scratching the surface.

conundrum

(which has nothing to do with blogging)
How do you go about apologizing to someone for something that they probably didn't even notice, and that - if they didn't - you'd really rather they continued not to notice?

Just a note - smelly drinking water is back

Update, another week later - water is fine again.

Our water started going bad last weekend, I called and left a msg (which might not have been received...) - but last night it was still noticeably off.
For newcomers, a post from 2005 provides background on this problem. Overall, the water has gotten much, much better since that time. Just not for the past week.

Naomi Oreskes talk on history of climate science and of climate contrarianism

Updated May 24 - see below.
Video of UCSD historian of science (and soon to be Provost) Naomi Oreskes talking on The American Denial of Global Warming.

First half is on history of the science of global warming (predictions and results), the 2nd half is on the history of climate change contrarianism and the role of the Marshall Institute.


Tuesday Update, excerpt from caerbannog's comment on another blog:

After the lecture, I asked Dr. Oreskes if Scripps scientists were ever invited to appear on the local conservative talk-radio shows (i.e. Rick Roberts and Rodger Hedgecock). She laughed and replied with an emphatic “no”.
...
I wanted to find out if our local right-wing radio hosts (who have repeatedly scoffed at global-warming) had any interest in hearing what some real experts had to say. Well, Dr. Oreskes made it quite clear that the local conservatives aren’t interested in hearing anything the Scripps folks might have to say regarding the matter.

The fact that even an organization as prestigious as the Scripps Institution of Oceanography cannot get a fair hearing on its own home-town conservative talk-radio shows tells you all you need to know what conservatives think of scientific expertise these days…

__________________

May 24 update: I'd emailed Scripps asking if they could confirm this; their response was more nuanced:

"...we have been approached to debate the media about climate change science, and, in at least once instance I can recall recently, we declined. Being asked to debate is not effective -- it just feeds in to the "uncertainty" framework, which scientists do not support."

On 'debates', see Eriga, quoted here ("I think...you can't win a debate, not only about climate change, but about any reasonably complex scientific issue, with someone who knows what they're doing. ... it's essentially a debate about trust in scientific authority, not about the science itself.")

New weblog template for the New Year

The old one was decrepit, motheaten and shopworn, to put it mildly. Things that once seemed of great import no longer do - I've been bitching about the cuisine in the dining car while the train's headed off a cliff.

Help me to keep my focus on the big stuff, people.
(confidential to my trolls: yes, even you, but please do it face to face.)

Update: RealClimate overview of The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

Gore speech at Nobel ceremony

Transcript and video of Gore’s speech. I beg you - if you're from Planet Earth - watch the video.

The man has a brain, folks, and he's not afraid to use it, to lead the fight to save our home.

From the speech -

We, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency - a threat to the survival of our civilization...

...many of the world’s leaders are still best described in the words Winston Churchill applied to those who ignored Adolf Hitler’s threat: "They go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent."

The catastrophe now threatening us is unprecedented - and we often confuse the unprecedented with the improbable.

We must abandon the conceit that individual, isolated, private actions are the answer. They can and do help. But they will not take us far enough without collective action.

It is time we steered by the stars and not by the lights of every passing ship.

But jeez, at the end, what a maroon of an anchorman...
Tuesday update: they've got a different video up now, sans anchorman. Which is a pity - the anchorman's cameo bit at the end spoke volumes about why we're in the mess we're in.

Read this: Scott Ritter lays out U.S.:Iran intentions

Very late updates:
1) much less likely now. ("Iran has no nuke program, U.S. intel says"; publ. Dec 4)
2) Seymour Hersh on Iran NIE, also Dec.4

Bush/Cheney are planning another "elective" war, on Iran, around April 2008. You can do your part: keep shopping.

This Scott Ritter interview is very, very good. Read it.
Ritter points out who's ultimately responsible:

[V]ery few Americans actually function as citizens anymore. What I mean by that are people who invest themselves in this country, people who care, who give a damn. Americans are primarily consumers today, and so long as they continue to wrap themselves in the cocoon of comfort, and the system keeps them walking down a road to the perceived path of prosperity, they don't want to rock the boat. If it doesn't have a direct impact on their day-to-day existence, they simply don't care.

There's a minority of people who do, but the majority of Americans don't. And if the people don't care — and remember, the people are the constituents — if the constituents don't care, then those they elect to higher office won't feel the pressure to change.

And we will get war.

Here's a man who speaks of World War III and the apocalypse and he has his hand on the button and he talks to God. I don't know, if it's a show, its a dangerous show, if its real, we should all be scared to death.

Margaret Atwood's When you open the door of war... from March 2003.

When a door swings open, you never know what will come through it. ...[T]he fortunes of war, being notoriously unpredictable, are ruled by the Goddess of Chance.

A. Hitler: (via)

To initiate a war is always like opening a large door into a dark room. You have no idea what is lurking there.

Bumper sticker

Update - from the looks of Cafe Press, this thought has occurred to others.
_____________________________________________________________

Let me know if you want one, or some, or feel free to use the image and make some of your own.

(Click to enlarge; for some reason Blogger seems to shrink it, here on the page)

If you missed Van Jones in Grass Valley last night...

...I'm sorry. You should have been there. It was wonderful, enthralling, freeing, inspiring.

He gave a similar talk last Friday, in Seattle; here's an excellent writeup. And for those who did get to see him last night, here's a video of his "Clean Energy Jobs Bill" press conference moment with Nancy "if Bush and Cheney choke on a pretzel, she's President" Pelosi.
(Thanks J.!)

Fortunately, Yuba Gals was (were?) filming his talk last night, so those who didn't see him will be able to.
Next time, let's bring him to the Center for The Arts.

And the woman asking Jones the question about how he retooled his organization? That was Shawn, blogger at Project Simplify.


Thanks to the Woolman School for giving us the opportunity to hear him.


Martin Luther King didn't get famous for a speech saying "I have a complaint"...

Blog status: Pining for the fjords

NCFocus isn't dead, it's just been down toward the bottom of the priority list of late. And you shouldn't be visiting it directly anyway, instead you should bookmark Nevada County Voices, from whence you'll be able to see at a glance if anything new has been posted to this or (almost) any other local blog that I'm aware of - along with news from The Union and KNCO and Yubanet, movie schedules, weather etc.

Sacramento Bee Suggestion Box

The Bee doesn't appear to have an online suggestion box, but the nice thing about blogs is, you can make one of your own...

For subscriptions -

• Provide a "Monday through Friday" option, like the NY Times does, to make workplace subscriptions more attractive - I don't want to have to pay for and dispose of a small mountain of unwanted paper every week.
  
  (I probably don't know what I'm talking about, but isn't increasing readership the name of the game? so shouldn't promoting/enabling workplace-friendly subscription options yield a particularly high return on investment?)


• Fix the Subscribe page so its personality (and treatment of visitors) isn't 180degrees off from the Bee's - make it so that it actually tells readers what they want and need to know. It hurts your brand, folks, when I want to - but can't - find out how much a subscription's actually going to cost.
  (the page gives the promo rate, but not the normal rate you'll end up paying, and not the rate for - or definition of - "outlying areas".)
  
  See the NY Times Subscribe page, for how it could be done.
  

And a thought for new editor Melanie Sill -
By overseeing both the news and the editorial pages (though not the editorials themselves) you have an unparalleled opportunity to make the paper into a source of good information, no?
It would be very, very cool if you could expose and/or evict the Op-Ed shills, by doing something along the lines of what Cline suggested.

And please, think about what a drought/flood/heat hellhole Sacramento will become, if global warming isn't stopped, and cover this slow-motion train wreck accordingly.

(Mark Lynas - On climate change, neutrality is cowardice)

Elsewhere: science, global warming,and Gore

Excellent: stages of scientific progress

Short video in which our favorite science teacher takes an updated look at global warming (a.k.a. global climate destabilization) in terms of risk analysis:

http://view.break.com/381084

And please watch this (considerably longer) Jan 2006 Gore speech to the American Constitution Society.

Gore, Doerr and activism

You heard it here last: Gore wins Nobel Peace Prize. Today's NY Times editorial -

[I]t shouldn’t have to be left to a private citizen - even one so well known as Mr. Gore - or a panel of scientists to raise that [climate crisis] alarm, or prove what is now clearly an undeniable link, or champion solutions to a problem that endangers the entire planet.

That should be, and must be the job of governments. And governments - above all the Bush administration - have failed miserably.
...
We cannot afford to squander any more time.

Video of Gore's press appearance, after winning the Nobel Prize -

He's not ruling it out.


I have maintained previously that I'm not an activist, but for some causes that's a luxury we can't afford - "Don't expect to live in a democracy if you're not prepared to be an active citizen.*" So for the most important concerns - our climate, and our freedoms - activism it's gonna be. I'll be out collecting signatures for the Draft Gore movement.

"Entrepreneurs do more than anyone thinks possible with less than anyone thinks possible."
See this video of Silicon Valley venture capitalist John Doerr's TED talk, Seeking salvation and profit in greentech - it's powerful, and offers a different perspective from what we typically see in Nevada County. Doerr cares about his daughter's future, and has the financial tools to play a significant role in shaping it, and exhorts us to join him in doing so. Excerpts -

There is a time when panic is the appropriate response, and we've reached that time. We can not afford to underestimate this problem.

The best way to predict the future is to invent it; the second best way is to finance it.
...[his co. is] investing $200 million in a wide range of technologies for disruptive innovation in green technologies...
geothermal could supply us for a thousand years; yet the fed budget calls for only $20 million R&D in geothermal
...
We need to reduce CO2 emissions by 1/2, as fast as possible
...
[A representative from China pointed out:] "Americans use 7 times the CO2 per capita as Chinese. Why should China sacrifice our growth so that the West can continue to be profligate and stupid?" does anyone here have an answer for him?

Energy is a 6 trillion dollar business worldwide, it is the mother of all markets. Do you remember the Internet? Green technologies, going green is bigger than the Internet - it could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.

[and if we don't do it...]

Several persons - your correspondent among them - were not dry-eyed at the end.

In Gore's U.N. speech he made the point that decades from now our children will be asking us one of two things:

What were you thinking - why didn't you act?
or
How did you find the moral courage to rise and solve this crisis that so many said was impossible to solve?

Let's get moving. Our house is burning.

Sun. update - since the demagogues' smear-o-rama can't abide leaders, the smears on Gore have returned - read about them here.
Also - see what Gore did during Katrina; and, if you'd like, compare and contrast...

Local climate denialist Russ Steele edits, censors, deletes comments?

Does he? The evidence points that way.

One comment I submitted Sept 30, in which I asked commenter "Anthony" (who appears to be "Surface Stations" Anthony Watts) for a disclosure statement, initially survived moderation but later was deleted. Russ said this deletion occurred inadvertently as he was editing my comment to remove Anthony's last name (which raises another question*...which also didn't survive moderation), but curiously, my resubmitted comment - in which I'd helpfully removed Anthony's last name - did not appear either.

Others appear to have been deep-sixed as well, including this response to Russ's post "Yes, the sun really is creating global warming" extolling a paper by Svensmark and Friis-Christensen. My comment (which quotes from Russ's post):

> [Russ Steele said:] "Physicist Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, Danish National Space Center, defending their position in a peer reviewed study. There most recent study: Reply to Lockwood and Fröhlich (PDF)"...

The climatologists' blog today covers this paper, concluding that "...all the evidence goes against the notion that GCR[galactic cosmic rays] are the cause of the present global warming"

[...]

> "A paper by Ken Gregory, Friends of Science Society, Calgary, Alberta, Canada..."

Sourcewatch on the (oil industry backed) Friends of Science Society. Ought to be renamed - with friends like that...

> "Another look at the Lockwood/Frochlich paper by SPPI Staff here, who conclude:..."

Sourcewatch on the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) ("the content of the website draws heavily on papers written by Christopher Monckton. However, the SPPI website also lists a number of other prominent climate change skeptics...." [including D'Aleo])

Very entertaining and revealing recent email correspondence between Monckton and George Monbiot, Did Lord Monckton fabricate a claim on his Wikipedia page?

Credibility matters, except to the gullible.


Russ, please, wake up. Your children's house is burning.

And here's my saw-the-light-of-day-but-submerged-again comment responding to "Anthony" (presumably Anthony Watts) in these comments:

re weatherman Anthony Watts's
> "your lack of understanding of the scientific method is clear now"

Anthony, please review Science vs. Faith, and consider which investigative algorithm you employ.

Anthony, I'd really like to know - what's your position now on the recent (last 40 years) global warming - do you still think that it's caused by the sun, and if so, by what mechanism or correlation - solar rays? sunspot cycles? something else?
(and do you have peer-reviewed evidence for this belief, or is it faith-based?)

And Anthony, have you ever received compensation, whether monetary or nonmonetary, whether directly or indirectly, in exchange for engaging in PR(Public Relations) activities?

More to come, when I have time.

And, dear reader, if you have time, I spent considerable time over at Russ's denialist blog in September, investigating each claim he made and, typically, only needing a minute of Googling to find it was bogus. Please feel free to drop by there and browse through that month of posts and comments. Somewhat naively, I had thought that I might be able to get through to him...but I can't.

Russ Steele sits on uncomfortable comment

On Saturday I commented on this post by Russ Steele; he'd posted graphs purporting to demonstrate that there's no warming trend. Two days later my comment has still not shown up; it turns out Russ a) wants to think about how to answer it and b) is real busy, although not too busy to publish multiple posts on other matters in the meantime.

His reluctance is understandable; here, roughly, is the comment:

In case anyone wants to know what it is that Russ is showing graphs of here
(Russ, if you're trying to educate your readers rather than snow them, explaining what's being measured will help)

The upper, original graph - with the red dots marking El Nino events - is of Spencer and Christy's ("UAH") dataset for Middle Troposphere("MT") atmospheric temperature over time. (Of 3 research groups using different analyses to measure the middle troposphere, the trend S&C get is the smallest, although still showing warming over time.)

What you should know about this graph of the UAH data:
1. The presentation is misleading - it's designed to emphasize "noise" rather than "signal". It obscures the upward trend in temperature by stretching out the X (time) axis relative to the Y (temp.) axis, and by failing to provide a best-fit (regression?) line to show the trend, which is a warming trend.
2. The dataset itself has a bias. The UAH Middle Troposphere measurements (and trend) are 'contaminated' by contributions from the stratosphere, which is (known and expected to be; ozone depletion plays a role) cooling. Thus the MT actual warming trend is likely steeper than this dataset shows.
(from here: "The University of Washington (UW) versions of the UAH and RSS analyses attempt to remove the stratospheric influence from the mid-troposphere measurements, and as a result the UW versions tend to have a larger warming trend than either the UAH or RSS versions.")

---

Next graphs:

The four lower graphs are of:
TLT = Temperature of Lower Troposphere (closer to ground)
TMT = Temperature of Middle Troposphere (higher up)
TTS = Temperature of Troposphere / Stratosphere (still higher up)
TLS = Temperature of Lower Stratosphere (still higher up)

Note that the trend for the TLT and the TMT is upward (showing warming), despite Russ's creativity with the red pen on the TLT (temperature of lower troposphere) chart. I think that's against the rules, Russ; it's certainly unusual, and inconsistent with how the other data in same graph are treated.

As mentioned above, the stratosphere (layer furthest from the earth) is cooling, and not germane to global warming, so the TTS and TLS graphs don't tell us anything relevant.

In his use of the first (red-dots") chart, Russ
a) doesn't tell you what his graph is of;
b) fails to mention in text or show on the graph that in fact the data do show a warming trend;
c) has cherry picked the mid-troposphere data (choosing to show mid-troposphere rather than the more accurate (and more warming) lower troposphere data, and further, choosing to show the UAH data, not the RSS or the UW versions which show stronger warming)

Russ, it looks like you're trying to pull the wool over your readers' eyes.

(The upper, "red dots" graph is also addressed here at Skeptical Science.)


Readers, please, wake up - our house is burning.