Dr Niman's call for a revision to the mortality risk assessment procedure has fallen on deaf ears in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and at the World Health Organisation (WHO), but has been a hot topic on SARS-related internet sites and discussion groups for much of the past two weeks.
Posting on 19 April..., Dr Niman gave mortality figures for a range of locations that should shake many health officials like Mr Tukuitonga to the complacent core.
On 19 April, based on country-supplied data, Dr Niman says the actual death toll was:
Hong Kong 18.2 per cent
Canada 18.2 per cent
Singapore 13.8 per cent
Viet Nam 9.8 per cent
SARS 'in perspective':
People in Toronto have a far greater chance of dying from influenza, a car crash or smoking than they do from SARS, says Dr. Richard Schabas, who's among health professionals in the SARS trenches nearly round the clock.
Some say SARS has been blown out of proportion:
We've been here before, said Dr. Don Woods, a University of Calgary microbiologist working on a biowar vaccine under contract to the Pentagon. Every so often, maybe once a year, a new bug crops up that's enough of a mystery to public health officials around the world to inspire a full-blown outbreak of media-driven hypochondria...
I wonder, is the urge to declare "cautious optimism" ASAP with SARS fundamentally the same as the one to declare that the stock market has finally hit bottom?
I think also there's a tendency to take a very narrow perspective, and scoff at people for acting/thinking that their risk of catching SARS is far higher than it currently is. But a) their community benefits from their actions since it does reduce the rate of transmission (if you're sick and wearing a mask, you're not going to set any records for long-distance sneezing) and b) in the longer term, their perceived risk might become right on target. We don't know.
PhilB on the Agonist SARS BB:
There seems to be a general relief that the Hanoi, Toronto and Singapore outbreaks are under control (I am not convinced about HK).
These places were never the problem. The problem is China and the trend there is still up.
We have yet to see the impact of the exodus from Beijing and any spread of SARS resulting from it. The next 2 weeks will be crucial. If in 2 weeks time we are seeing less than 200 new cases a day then SARS is not getting worse and there is real hope it can be got under control. If the daily new cases are significantly higher than 200 new cases a day in 2 weeks time then we are in deep trouble.
...
Epidemics don't start out exponential. They start as linear increases with an upward bias for a period, then suddenly go exponential. [he points to these 1918 flu stats]
From the Guardian, the worst-case scenario
Millions dead. Although the disease is spreading more slowly than the Spanish flu pandemic that killed up to 50 million people in 1918, it is more lethal and may simply take longer to spread. There are two big reasons the disease could get badly out of hand: no one is immune to Sars, and there is no effective treatment...
Actors have much to teach us dept: Why are they saying a SARS vaccine will take years, when it only took Dustin Hoffman a day or so to make one from a cute monkey in Outbreak?
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