Sunday, November 19, 2006

Followup on the early November power outages

Nov. 27 update at end of post (and in italics within).
------------
Russ Steele's comment on my Nov. 13 "power outages" post exposed the inadequacy of my "dust on the transformers*" attempt at explanation.
Rather than remaining true to blogger nature and quietly changing the subject, I emailed* PG&E spokeswoman Lisa Randle asking for more information.
(which she promptly and extensively provided; either she's extremely generous, or I was lucky and caught her on a slow afternoon, or both.)


However, I think we're still left with a mystery:

In early November, during a one-week period during calm weather, Nevada County experienced three power outages with three different reported causes (one unambiguous, 2 ultimately ambiguous), and Red Bluff had [at least] one with yet a fourth cause. In Nevada County at least, these outages were unusual on several fronts: the mere fact of their occurrence (the power has been extremely reliable the last few years; thank you PG&E), their clustering, and their association with relatively calm weather.

The Nevada County outages and their reported causes:

  1. Sat Nov. 4, about 6pm, the Cascade Shores area east of Nevada City, on a quiet, rain-free night
    L.R.: A sectionalizer had opened causing the outage but the cause was not definitive. The weather at the time was - Strong Winds,Clear;32-90 F. Not having found a specific item like a branch or animal in the line or a vehicle accident, it was most likely weather related due to the wind.

    I don't recall windy weather that evening, and apparently nor does the National Weather Service: on this page, for Nov. 4 for Sacto (are there wind records for Nevada County?):
    CLIMATE REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO, CA
    ...
    426 PM PST SAT NOV 4 2006
    WIND (MPH)
    HIGHEST WIND SPEED 12 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NW (330)
    HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NW (310)
    AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.7
    ...
    WEATHER CONDITIONS
    THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
    FOG
    FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE
    HAZE

  2. Wed Nov. 8, 4:30 and 4:45pm, in town; an article in The Union reports that it may have been caused by lightning.
    L.R.: This outage was caused by a tree through the line, but at the time I provided information to the reporter this was not known and reports at the time had indicated possibly lightning.


  3. Later that same evening of 11/8, about 11pm, in-town Nevada City, during 'quiet' weather
    L.R.: The Cause was equipment...a fuse had blown. A fuse is a safety device that activate when fault current is detected on the line. It works just like a fuse in your circuit box at your home. It serves to protect other equipment. A line-to-ground fault was noted, but again no specific cause for the equipment action.


I don't know what if anything to make of this cluster of outages (and the seemingly contrafactual report of causal weather conditions for the first one), but it does seem curious.


Ms. Randle also shared some more general info, which will appear on NCDocuments in the next day or so.
--------------
Nov 27 update, one week later:
As with creation, a "day" is not always best understood literally.
Asked two more people, so two more data points:
1. According to an anonymous source, Petaluma also experienced an uncharacteristic power outage, back in October.
2. An Alta Sierra source informs us that power was not lost there.
FWIW.

Two relevant quotes (or one relevant and one red herring):
The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' but 'That's funny..."
- Isaac Asimov

Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right.
- Robert Park

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